Gut feeling

Most Americans have not forgotten what pushed Bush over the top in the 2004 presidential race. His repeated promise to nominate only Supreme Court justices who would be strict constitutionists rang true in the ears of the many. Even with a debacle of a first term, he won by a convincing majority, thanks to that one issue (well, that and the fact that Kerry was a complete douchebag).

Fast forward almost a year. Roberts is nominated. The firestorm of criticism from the left is immediate. Bush backs his man through it all, and he's eventually confirmed. A victory for Bush, a victory for those who voted for him in the interest of such a nominee, and (dare I say it?) a victory for America. Bush manages to pull through on his campaign promise, and all is well in the world.

What no one expected, however, was that not one but TWO spots would open up within such narrow temporal proximity. Bush was ready for a one hand all-in, but I don't think his squad was adequately prepared for what would turn into a more drawn out game involving much higher stakes. They obviously hadn't even drawn up a contingency for the situation involving concurrent vacancies.

Now, all that said, let's get down to what really matters: my opinion on the Miers nomination. I personally take solace in the fact that she is from the private sector. It pleases me that she is from SMU. I much prefer her religious fundamentalism to a countless number of other religious thoughtlines. Not that I explicitly condone any one of those aspects per se, but that each is so inherently antithetical to judicial activism, which is good, good, good.

I approach her lack of a "paper trail," as the MSM is so fond of calling it, with cautious optimism. Bush is self-conscious enough to realize that these picks have the potential to be one of the few bright spots in what has up to this point been a rather hit-or-miss presidency (with emphasis on the miss). I would venture so far as to say that they have the potential to define it, and mark its place in history. You bet your ass he thinks about that all the time, and it weighs like a rock on his decisions.

Taking that into consideration, I am inclined to trust him, and assume that she will be a strict constitutionalist. The last thing he wants is another failure in the eyes of the public - especially the public that is responsible for keeping him in office. She's qualified and experienced, and there's no reason she shouldn't be confirmed, so I think that she will be with little resistance, albeit plenty of uneasiness on both sides of the aisle. Who knows? This could be Bush's most brilliant move to date. My gut feeling: it is.

And now for my completely biased baseball picks:

Division Series
Cards in 3 (Padres suck)
Astros in 4 (rotation: Clemens, Pettitte, Oswalt)
Angels in 4 (Angels pen dominates even without a leftie, and the Yanks are bitches)
BoSox in 5 (I only picked five because I hope it goes that many)

Championship Series
Astros in 6 (hey, we swept the Cards the last series of the season)
BoSox in 6 (in a GREAT series)

World Series
Astros in 7 (followed by the heavens parting, and Jesus coming down to take us all up to heaven)